Rice
Rice futures have surged higher in recent days, despite other grains being under pressure from recent strength in the dollar. The rice crop is expected to be the smallest since the 1970s when the U.S. ended rice allotments, allowing anyone who wanted to raise rice. USDA will provide an update on planted acres on June 30. Riceland Foods, one of the world’s largest millers of rice, announced last week that they will close 9 of their 23 locations from receiving deliveries in 2026, a sure indication the industry is planning for an historically small crop. USDA says 71% of the U.S. crop is in good to excellent condition, while only 65% of the crop in Arkansas is in good to excellent condition as of June 21—before heavy rains across NE Arkansas left many fields under water. The September contract is leading the way higher as traders roll out of July positions. The market has resistance at the May high of $13.43 ½ and has so far been unable to challenge that resistance. The market is building support just above $12.
Soybeans
Soybean futures posted sharp gains last week, indicating that the market had put in a bottom for the time being. However, futures are now trading in a mostly sideways pattern between last week’s low of $11.34 ¾ and last week’s high of $11.58 ¼ in the November contract. 66% of the U.S. crop is rated good to excellent, while in Arkansas that total was 74% as of June 21, before torrential rains across NE Arkansas flooded fields, submerging small soybeans in the process. There are indications that recent price declines have resulted in China purchasing U.S. beans, but sales remain 387 million bushels behind the previous marketing year, so small sales won’t make that much of a difference. Soy oil futures remain under pressure and will limit the upside potential of the market.
Corn
September corn futures have dropped roughly 70 cents since the highs in May, establishing a new point of support at a recent low of $4.14 after breaking trend support late last month. Technically, a 50% retracement from that $4.14 low would point toward a target of $4.53. This upside potential could easily be triggered by emerging summer weather concerns or a sudden spark in new export sales. On the demand side, traders are showing renewed optimism regarding Chinese interest in U.S. corn, a sentiment lifted by China’s new-crop soybean purchases last week. Moving forward, all eyes are on next week’s upcoming USDA June acreage report. Analysts do not anticipate a dramatic decline in corn acres. However, producers should note that any unexpected increase in acreage could easily trigger a breakdown below current support levels.
Cotton
The December cotton contract recently posted a sharp key reversal upward, fueled by technical buying and lingering anxieties over this year’s crop condition. After turning around from a 10-week low on June 11, the market rallied for five consecutive sessions. This upward momentum has stalled for now, meeting strong technical resistance around the 50-day moving average of 80 cents, while December chart support is holding at 78 cents. Looking ahead, cotton traders are shifting their focus to the June acreage report. Many analysts expect an increase in updated cotton acres, largely driven by memories of the 88-cent spring rally. Keep in mind that March planting estimates already came in higher than expected. Long-term price support remains intact, however, as international producers continue to worry about El Niño’s negative impact on production in India and South America.
Wheat
Wheat price action has been exceptionally volatile lately. July Chicago futures aggressively rallied from $5.30 up to $6.80 before plunging back down to find temporary support at $5.80. Traders are actively increasing their bearish bets as Middle East geopolitical tensions ease, opening up energy trade. This, combined with healthy global reserves, has significantly calmed the market anxiety that previously pushed KC futures to two-year highs in May. Wheat prices face heavy pressure from plentiful global supplies. While heat stress in European crops bears watching, massive stocks on hand across major exporting nations remain the biggest burden for prices.
Cattle
The June Cattle on Feed report showed an inventory that was up 2% over June 1, 2025, at the low end of pre-report estimates. Placements were down 10% and marketings were down 12%, the second lowest for May since reporting began in 1996. The market seems to be focused on supply-side concerns, as futures consolidate into a sideways pattern. October has nearby chart resistance near $243.
Hogs
The long running downtrend in hog futures has been exhausted. October hog futures are now trading mostly sideways, consolidating above support just below $80 as traders even positions ahead of the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that will be released at the end of the week. The composite pork cutout value continues to trend lower as the market struggles with weak domestic demand