Rice
Rice futures are trending higher and prices made new 18-month highs this week. September set a new high of $14.40, and November traded as high as $14.82. Crop ratings declined this week, giving the market a boost. UDSA now says only 66% of Arkansas rice is in good to excellent condition. That is down from 76% just last week. Nationwide, 72% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, compared to 78% last week and 79% a year ago. Thanks to a dry spring, the crop is ahead of schedule, with 37% of Arkansas’s rice crop headed, compared with a five-year average of 28%. The July WASDE the first report to reflect the June 30 Acreage report. Projected all rice ending stocks of 30.9 million cwt and long grain ending stocks of 17.7 million cwt would reflect the lowest carryout since the 2019/2020 marketing year if realized.
Soybeans
Soybean futures have posted sharp gains, gapping higher on Monday after breaking out the top of a flag formation, suggesting the market has not yet found its top. Higher crude oil prices continue to support the oil side of the soy complex. Export demand has improved, also providing support. The July WASDE painted a mostly positive picture despite increased production. Beginning stocks for 26/27 were reduced by 10 million bushels, and exports were increased by 30 million bushels, completely offsetting the projected 40 million bushel increase in supply. Farmers have reported planting 85.365 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up from 81.215 million in 2025. In Arkansas, farmers have seeded 3.2 million acres of soybeans, up from 2.59 million last year. That left both ending stocks of 310 million bushels and a projected on farm price of $11.40 unchanged.
Corn
It has been a wild ride recently for the corn market, with hot temperatures across the Corn Belt and Canadian smoke pushing prices in every direction. Fundamentally, the market has recovered above its expected average price for the year. Nearby basis remains strong, but that strength is absent in deferred positions as bear spreading pushes spreads back near 75% of full carry. While record yields are officially off the table, a total crop disaster is equally unlikely, leaving production balanced near normal levels. Meanwhile, flat open interest indicates a distinct lack of new buying entering the market, quickly dampening hopes for December corn to regain the $4.90 to $5.00 range. With soybeans and wheat completing their respective bull rallies, corn will lose outside grain support moving forward.
Cotton
Cotton futures have seen some volatility recently after recently touching an eight-week high, but then closing lower. This signaled some trouble ahead for the market. Weak export sales added heavy pressure, with little sign that China’s trade efforts will spark resurgence in U.S. cotton purchases anytime soon. After posting the sharp retreat in prices, the cotton market is attempting to claw back above the 80-cent mark. Traders remain cautious given uncertain growing conditions across the Northern Hemisphere, while managed funds continue to hold a decent bullish position. Market participants are now looking ahead to the next weekly export sales report for fresh demand signals. Technically, December chart support holds at 77.75 cents, with upside resistance sitting around 81.75 cents.
Wheat
As the wheat harvest wraps up, a distinct lack of cash movement has propelled futures prices significantly higher, with Chicago futures rallying $1.00 per bushel over the past two weeks and Kansas City gained even more. A major fundamental driver behind this surge is escalating Black Sea conflict, where Ukrainian attacks in the Azov Sea prompted Russia to cut off traffic through the Kerch Strait, a critical waterway for roughly a quarter of Russian wheat exports. Increased Russian strikes on Ukraine’s port infrastructure have further tightened supply concerns. From a technical view, there is no clear sign this rally has topped out. Open interest continues to rise alongside gains, signaling solid market participation, though a portion of that expanding position volume is likely tied to routine harvest hedging.
Livestock and Poultry
In the July WASDE, USDA lowered their 2026 beef production projections due to a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter and lighter dressed weights through the end of the year. Pork production was also lowered on lower slaughter totals that more than offset higher projected dressed weights. Broiler and Turkey production estimates were raised on recent slaughter data and favorable margins, while egg production estimates were unchanged. Beef export projections for the second quarter were lowered on recent trade data but were unchanged for the rest of the year. Broiler export projections for the rest of the year were lowered on expected weakness in key markets, but price estimates remain unchanged.