Rice
Rice futures have moved to new contract highs on bullish fundamental factors to drive the market. November has moved to a new 2-year high on a front month basis. In the monthly WASDE, USDA cut the yield estimate by 22 pounds per acre, resulting in a 500,000-cwt. cut in the production estimate. With no other changes to the report, the cut carried over directly into the ending stocks estimate, now pegged at 40 million cwt., down from 58.4 million cwt. for the 25/26 marketing year. The average long grain on-farm price for 26-27 was increased by 50 cents to $14.00, and the all rice average farm price was increased by 30 cents to $15.20. Disappointing milling yields in the U.S. and concerns about Asian production during an El Nino weather pattern were also both supportive for prices. Basis levels for long grain rice remain between $2 and $2.50 under the board as harvest winds down.
Soybeans
Soybeans continue to drift lower as harvest progresses. The monthly WASDE increased the yield estimate by 0.3 bushels/acre, increasing the production estimate to 4.562 billion bushels and ending stocks to 315 million bushels, up from 310 million in the previous report. The average on-farm price was unchanged at $12. Carryover weakness from the corn and wheat markets could also have impacted the soy complex. November has support at $12.75, and a close below that level could signal further weakness.
Corn
December corn futures were up 4 cents heading into Friday’s WASDE after recovering from a 30-cent drop triggered by the prior week’s bearish Grain Stocks report. However, the crop report upended the market as the USDA unexpectedly raised estimated corn yield by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2, far exceeding the trade average estimate of 177.8. The yield jump above 180 bushels sent December and March futures down the 30-cent daily limit. Old-crop adjustments saw feed and residual use cut by 231 million bushels to align with quarterly stocks. For the new-crop balance sheet, a 407-million-bushel supply increase was only partially offset by higher estimates for feed, ethanol, and export demand, driving projected ending stocks up by 282 million bushels and lifting the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.3%. December support now sits at $4.60, while December 2027 futures continue to hold above $5.00.
Cotton
The October WASDE report leaned bearish on paper, but cotton futures posted gains as corn, wheat, and soybeans slumped, suggesting the market had already priced in the supply changes. The USDA raised total production to 13.44 million bales on higher Delta yields, lifting 2026/27 projected carryout from 3.6 million to 3.8 million bales. However, harvest progress remains messy with widespread crop quality concerns. West Texas has dried after a wet September, but key growing regions in Georgia received heavy rainfall and Hurricane Isaias looks to bring more moisture. Chart technicals show December futures finding solid support at 77 cents while attempting a bullish reversal, with next key resistance sitting around the 84 cent mark.
Wheat
Wheat continued its struggling trend despite a relatively quiet WASDE report. The USDA raised average U.S. yield by 0.3 bushels per acre and lowered imports, resulting in a modest net supply increase of 8 million bushels. Following a sluggish export pace, projected U.S. exports were trimmed from 775 million down to 750 million bushels, raising ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million. On the global stage, the primary adjustment was a 3 MMT reduction in Russian exports to 40 MMT, down from 48 MMT last year. Technically, wheat contracts fell through recent support levels, with key downside targets now focusing on the early August lows: $6.60 in March Chicago wheat, $7.00 to $7.10 in March Spring wheat, and $7.25 in March Kansas City wheat.
Livestock and Poultry
In the October WASDE, USDA lowered beef and pork production estimates for the rest of 2026, while raising broiler and turkey production estimate. Lower steer and heifer slaughter totals and lighter carcass weights offset higher slaughter totals for beef. For 2027, USDA forecasts lower beef and pork production again, with higher broiler and turkey production. Cattle price forecasts were steady for 2026 and 2027, while hog price forecasts saw a decline as pork cutout values remain weak. Broiler price forecasts were lowered on higher production and seasonal demand trends.