Rice
Rice futures appear to have topped for the time being. The September contract topped at $14.44 and November at $14.82 after making new 18-month highs in late July. Harvest has begun in Arkansas, with 7% of the crop in the bins as of August 16. The August Crop Production and WASDE reports added 90,000 acres to U.S. planted rice acres. This report uses FSA certified acres, crop insurance data, surveys, and ground and satellite observation to arrive at the total. That resulted in a total planted acreage of 2.112 million acres across the U.S. In Arkansas, the crop is estimated at 901,000 acres—780,000 acres of long grain, and 121,000 acres of medium and short grain. The expected yield estimate was lowered to 7,644 lbs/acre, partially offsetting the increased acreage and resulting in a production estimate of 158.4 million cwt. Beginning stocks were increased again to 53.8 million cwt. The import estimate was unchanged at 49.8 million cwt, resulting in a total supply of 262 million cwt. With few changes in the use estimates, carryout was increased to 36.0 million cwt. Down significantly year-over-year, but up from last month’s estimate. The expected on-farm price was unchanged, with an all-rice price of $14.90 and a long grain price of $13.50.
Soybeans
The August crop production and WASDE reports showed a sharp increase in projected soybean production. In the first report based on certified acreage and observations as well as farmer surveys, the total U.S. planted acreage was pegged at 86.765 million. Arkansas acreage was increased to 3.45 million acres, up from 3.2 million in the previous report. The increase in the acreage estimate was partially offset by smaller beginning stocks and slightly lower yields. After charting sharp losses in recent weeks that appear to have confirmed a bottom, soybeans have rallied this week on ideas that excessive rains in parts of the mid-west have hurt the yield potential of the crop. November now has resistance at $12.25. A close above that would suggest a retest of the contract high of $12.56 ½ is back in play.
Corn
The August WASDE came in friendly overall for corn prices, signaling to the trade that weather conditions between now and the conclusion of harvest will be more critical than ever. The market could quickly transition from merely friendly to aggressively bullish if high temperatures continue to build across the western Corn Belt, where late-season rainfall will no longer offer much benefit to mature crops. Additional yield reductions will likely need to materialize to fuel an upward trend, though underlying domestic and export demand remains quite strong. From a chart perspective, corn is currently locked in a sideways trading pattern. Key resistance rests at the recent high of $4.93, a level that, if broken, could easily open the door for a push toward the $5.05 target.
Cotton
It has been a volatile stretch for cotton futures, which surged to a three-month high before stumbling downward in the wake of a bearish USDA report. However, prices have since mounted a modest recovery, fueled by renewed anxieties over deteriorating U.S. crop conditions alongside lingering production doubts in India and China. With the official supply data now digested, traders are refocusing on severe weather that is heavily stressing crops from West Texas through the Delta. This hot and dry pattern is forecasted to persist over the coming week while expanding further into the Southeast. Chart support for December cotton currently stands at 84.75 cents, while resistance holds firm near 86.75 cents.
Wheat
Last week’s crop report delivered few unexpected surprises, keeping the market on track for a significant decline in carryover compared to the 2025/26 marketing year. Meanwhile, conflict in the Black Sea continues to stifle regional export activity, as persistent missile and drone strikes between Russia and Ukraine raise risks for international buyers and inflict lasting damage on critical port infrastructure. Restoring normal shipping operations in that corridor will take considerable time. On a more optimistic note for trade, the U.S. and Canada have established a temporary agreement to avoid tariffs, providing welcomed stability and removing immediate friction for North American grain movements.
Livestock
In the August WASDE, USDA raised their 2026 poultry production estimate, more than offsetting lower beef and pork production. Beef production estimates were lowered for 2027 as well, as a slower pace of marketings reduces total steer and heifer slaughter, offsetting increased placements. Beef exports were unchanged for 2026, while imports were increased, reflecting the reopening of the border with Mexico for the importation of live cattle. Cattle and poultry price forecasts were lowered for the remainder of 2026 on weaker demand forecasts.