Rice
Rice futures appear to have made a top for the time being. The September contract topped at $14.44 and November at $14.82 after making new 18-month highs in late July. UDSA says 66% of Arkansas rice is in good to excellent condition. Nationwide, 71% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, steady since last week and down from 78% a year ago. Thanks to a dry spring, the crop is ahead of schedule, with 75% of Arkansas’ rice crop headed, compared with a 5-year average of 63%. The July WASDE is the first report to reflect the June 30 Acreage report. The decrease in production estimates is being partially offset by large beginning stocks and increasing imports. However, projected all rice ending stocks of 30.9 million cwt and long grain ending stocks of 17.7 million cwt would reflect the lowest carryout since the 19/20 marketing year if realized.
Soybeans
Soybean futures have moved sharply lower in recent days after setting a high of $12.56 in late July. The market has begun to focus on the supply side of the market. Farmers have reported planting 85.365 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up from 81.215 million in 2025. In Arkansas, farmers have seeded 3.2 million acres of soybeans, up from 2.59 million last year. 63% of the crop is rated good to excellent nationwide, and pod counts in the Delta have experts predicting a record-setting yield. The July WASDE projected an average yield of 53 bushels/acre, but that is likely to increase to 55-56 bushels. If that comes to pass, we can expect to see further losses in futures, with the June low near $11.30 a likely target for bears. On the use side of the equation, things have been a bit better. Crush totals are solid and export sales for the next market year are the best they have been in 3 years, with China back in the market.
Corn
Just when you think corn futures appear to have topped, the market charts a new key reversal suggesting the market is poised to make another move higher. Harvest pressure will likely be a factor, as harvest is well underway in the Delta and will steadily move north. Early yield reports are surprisingly high at this point. As in soybeans, the market is focused on the supply-side of the equation for the time being. Weather models suggest that much of the crop will have adequate moisture through maturity. The demand side of the market is strong, though, providing some underlying support. Both domestic ethanol production and export sales are brisk, with current marketing year exports likely to exceed the current USDA projection. Sales for the next marketing year are also running ahead of projections. If the market does succumb to harvest pressure, a retest of the June low of $4.25 for December could come into play.
Cotton
Cotton futures are chopping along mostly sideways, with December finding resistance just below 83 cents and support below 78 cents. The market posted a bullish outside trading day on Monday but will need to close above 82.74 cents to suggest additional upside potential. The Arkansas crop is in relatively good shape, with 76% rated good to excellent. There are bigger question marks elsewhere, with only 28% of the crop in Texas rated good to excellent, prompting concerns about abandonment of dryland acres in west Texas and elsewhere.
Wheat
Wheat futures have been on quite a rollercoaster ride the past few sessions. All contracts in both Chicago and Kansas City futures posted huge bearish key reversals, suggesting that the market has made a significant top. This should be seen as a pricing opportunity for any farmers with wheat left to sell, as there is little support left on the charts until you reach the June low, which is $5.74 for the September contract.
Cattle
Live cattle futures have been trending sharply lower for the past 5 weeks, but may be confirming a bottom, which is at $216.95 for the October contract. News that the U.S. will reopen imports of cattle from Mexico hit the market hard, but prices have begun to recover. The semi-annual USDA Cattle Inventory report showed the U.S. cattle herd as of July 1 was larger than the year earlier for the first time in eight years. Only by 200,000 head, but it is still significant to see an increase. The July 1 beef cow herd, though, was lower for the eighth consecutive year, and the smallest herd since USDA began