Corn
Corn prices have traded largely sideways for several months, with the market caught in a tug of war between the opposing fundamentals of large supplies and strong demand. While USDA’s January reports increased estimates for both U.S. and global production, the broader global supply and demand picture remains relatively tight, particularly outside of China. Continued growth in global usage could eventually prompt China’s return as a major importer, a development that would significantly alter the balance of the world market. From a technical perspective, corn appears to have established a short-term bottom the day after the crop report, which is a constructive signal. The March contract now faces immediate resistance at the 20-day moving average near $4.29, a level it has failed to close above since January 9, the session ahead of the January 12 WASDE release.
Soybeans
Soybean export sales to China remain uncertain. Official USDA weekly data indicates purchases of 9.6 million metric tons, while market sources suggest China has secured the full 12 million metric tons included in the agreement. Either way, current commitments remain well below last year’s levels. With the agreed volume potentially fulfilled and Brazil’s harvest accelerating, any additional Chinese buying would provide meaningful upside support for prices. Technically, March soybean futures recently struggled at the 200-day moving average near $10.69, marking a disappointing setback after posting two closes above that level last week. Beyond the 200-day average, the 100-day and 50-day moving averages clustered just above $10.80 represent another layer of resistance that bulls will need to overcome.
Wheat
Since Jan. 2, March Chicago wheat futures have rallied from $5.01 to $5.44, while March Kansas City futures have climbed from $5.03 to $5.50 since December 17. By recent historical standards, this represents a meaningful move higher. It is important to note that the rally began from historically depressed price levels and key psychological and technical support zones, which are likely to remain intact. Fundamental news in the wheat market has been limited, with ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. winter wheat conditions. A warm stretch from mid-December through mid-January was followed by a period of harsh cold across much of the Plains, leaving crop conditions a key variable to monitor moving forward.
Rice
The long-term downtrend in rice futures appears to be over for the time being, with clear chart signals that the market has found its bottom. March futures are now testing resistance at $11.25, while May has resistance at $11.50. With rice prices so low, the market has begun to worry about the potential size of the 2026 crop. We have seen an uptick in export sales totals, which is also providing some support. However, the global rice supply is still burdensome, with India, Thailand and Vietnam all competing for export markets. Recent USDA reports have provided somewhat bullish news for prices. The annual production report pegged harvested acres at 2.74 million, down 20,000 acres from the previous projection. The net result of the report was a 3.6 million cwt reduction in projected ending stocks. The all-rice expected average on farm price was increased 20 cents to $11.80, while the projected long-grain price was unchanged at $10.50.
Cotton
Despite the fact that recent USDA reports have been somewhat bullish for the market, cotton futures have again moved to new lows. Old crop March is now below 62.50 cents, leaving open the possibility of a retest of the continuation low of 61.35 cents set in November. In early January, export sales were impressive but have tapered off. In the January Annual Production Report, USDA lowered the 2025 crop estimate to 13.918 million bales, down 350,000 bales from the December estimate. The reduction was due to an 8% drop in average yields due to lower yields in the Delta and larger harvested acreage in the Southwest. The WASDE report was mostly unchanged otherwise, resulting in a 300,000 bale reduction in projected ending stocks and an increase of a penny in the expected on-farm average price, which is now pegged at 61 cents/lb.
Livestock
Cattle futures have seen support from firm cash markets and bullish news in the January cattle on Feed report, which confirmed that feedlot inventory is tightening. The total herd was pegged at 99.6% of the year-ago total. Technically, the charts look toppy, but with futures trading at a discount to current cash prices, the downside will likely be limited.
April hog futures are in position to challenge their recent high above $97. The market had begun trading mostly sideways after a steep rally that begin in November, but have posted sharp gains this week. Futures are trading at a steep premium to cash prices, and that could add downward pressure to the market. Pork demand is solid with the composite pork cutout value running 5% above the 5-year average.