Rice
The June 30 USDA Acreage Report confirmed that planted rice acres in Arkansas and across the U.S. are the lowest since allotments were eliminated by the federal government in the mid-1970s. This report is based on surveys conducted in early June, certified acreage will be reported later in the summer. Arkansas farmers reported planting a total of 851,000 acres of rice (730,000 of long grain and 120,000 of medium grain). U.S. planted acres were reported at 2.017 million, down from over 2.8 million one year ago, reflecting the high cost of production and extremely low likelihood of profitability. In a clear case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” September futures set a new contract high and immediately charted a huge bearish key reversal. Follow through selling has been limited, however, and bulls are attempting to take out that high of $13.91½ in order to negate the negative chart signal.
Soybeans
Soybean acres are reportedly up sharply, according to the USDA June 30 acreage report, due in no small part to the high cost and low availability of fertilizer that is needed to grow corn and rice. Farmers have reported planting 85.365 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up from 81.215 million in 2025. In Arkansas, farmers have seeded 3.2 million acres of soybeans, up from 2.59 million last year. Despite this, soybean futures have surged higher this week on higher crude oil prices and talk of Chinese buying returning to the market. Bulls are attempting to make a run at resistance at the May high of $12.14.
Corn
September and December corn futures continue to ride a wave of momentum, sparked by the recent USDA report estimating planted acreage down 3% compared to the 2025 season. From a technical standpoint, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages ($4.69 to $4.73) serve as the short-term target for bulls. On the downside, support rests at the 20-day moving average ($4.42), which may be tested in the coming days following Monday’s breakout. Domestically, the USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 16% of U.S. corn is silking, slightly ahead of the early-July average. Meanwhile, crop ratings held steady at 67% good to excellent, notably 7 points lower than this time last year. Globally, the Brazilian corn harvest is progressing, though at a slightly slower-than-normal pace for early July.
Cotton
The December cotton contract recently posted dramatic gains, hitting nearly a full limit-up. The surge was driven by speculative short-covering and mounting anxieties over northern hemisphere growing conditions. Many traders suspect the U.S. crop is deteriorating faster than indicated by the USDA’s latest rating of 46% good to excellent. This rally comes despite the June acreage report showing total cotton acres up 6% from previous estimates. Outside markets also lent support, as reports of China purchasing five cargoes of U.S. soybeans created positive demand spillover for cotton. Chart support now sits at the 20-day moving average of 77.53 cents, while psychological resistance looms at 82 cents.
Wheat
With the July wheat contract expiring next week, market focus is shifting entirely to September. The outgoing July contract received a final boost from the June acreage report, which estimated total wheat acres down 6%. September contracts across all three major wheat markets have trended higher, fueled by last week’s surprise cut to 2026 U.S. wheat acreage. As a result, U.S. wheat stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year are expected to fall in upcoming USDA forecasts. Technically, September KC futures rallied back above the 100-day moving average ($6.50), a key level that provided solid support through most of 2026 before a brief break lower.
Livestock
Live cattle futures are trading in a choppy sideways pattern, with August futures struggling to overcome resistance at $250. The market is looking for evidence of good clearance during the long holiday weekend. Futures are finding support from their current discount to cash. Feeder prices are being limited by losses in live cattle futures and gains in corn futures. Despite stronger fundamentals, hog futures are under some pressure from their discount to cash prices. The composite pork cutout is strong thanks to holiday demand and the summer grilling season in general.