Rice
Rice futures continue to trend higher. Export demand improved, with net sales last week up 58% from the previous week at 69,000 metric tons for 26/27 delivery. Mexico, Haiti, and Canada were the top destinations for Arkansas rice. The crop has been harvested, and milling yield reports are again disappointing. In the monthly WASDE, USDA cut the yield estimate by 22 pounds per acre, resulting in a 500,000-cwt. cut in the production estimate, and poor milling yields will further cut the amount of whole-grain rice available. The continued El Nino weather pattern has the market concerned about production potential in Asia. As a result of these supply-side concerns, January rice has traded to a high of $18.21, the highest price on a front-month basis in 2.5 years.
Soybeans
Soybean harvest is winding down, with 79% of the crop in the bins as of Oct. 25. In Arkansas, farmers have harvested 91% of the crop. The market has clearly topped and continues to work lower. The October production report increased the yield estimate by 0.3 bushels/acre, increasing the production estimate to 4.562 billion bushels, but anecdotal yield reports suggest this is still too low, and we can expect UDSA to increase the yield estimate in future reports. Export sales have improved significantly—with the largest weekly sales total in nearly three years coming in mid-October. China is back in the market after buying no beans from the U.S. for an entire marketing year, having now purchased 494 million bushels. That is over 50% of their stated target for the year. November futures are currently testing long-term trendline support, and a close below that trendline near $12.28 would signal further losses are likely.
Corn
Corn harvest progress has slowed considerably over the last several weeks, marking the slowest pace for this date since 2019 and trailing the five-year average by a notable 11%. It remains unclear what final impact this prolonged harvest timeline will ultimately have on overall national yields. Field results emerging from Nebraska and Indiana continue to indicate disappointing yield numbers, while early reports out of Iowa remain highly spotty and inconsistent. Market attention stays firmly focused on incoming U.S. harvest data, near-term export demand trends and early-season South American weather conditions as producers in Brazil and Argentina navigate rising input costs and expanding acreage. On the charts, corn futures have yet to establish a confirmed bottom. As December futures moved lower to start the week, the primary downside technical support target shifts directly toward the June lows around the $4.30 mark.
Cotton
December cotton futures broke out of their recent consolidation range to the downside, closing below the key 200-day moving average to signal growing technical weakness. Seasonal harvest pressure continues to weigh heavily on price action, with national harvest reaching 41% complete as of October 18 and making significant forward progress over recent days. Despite this accelerating harvest pace, widespread questions remain regarding quality following excessive rainfall events in late September and early October across west Texas, Georgia, and the Delta. Traders are keeping a close watch on cash market premiums and loan values as ginning activity picks up speed across the Cotton Belt, though sluggish export demand and broader economic headwinds continue to cap any meaningful rally attempts.
Wheat
Wheat futures have experienced extreme volatility since June, with March Chicago futures rallying from $6.15 to over $8.00 before tumbling back down toward the $6.20 level. Domestically, the primary drag on the market continues to be an exceptionally weak U.S. export pace. Current sales are running significantly behind last year’s level and the five-year average, falling well short of the pace needed to hit the USDA’s official export projection, which is already the second-smallest target since the 1971-72 marketing year. Global competition remains intense as cheaper Black Sea supplies continue to undercut U.S. origin grain in major destination markets. From a technical view, the chart leaves little doubt that a major market top was established nearly two months and two dollars ago, leaving futures vulnerable to further downside testing.
Cattle
Cattle markets strengthened over the past two weeks, USDA’s fed-cattle prices increased, while supply remains limited. USDA reduced its beef-production forecast slightly due to slower anticipated slaughter pace while raising its 2026 cattle-price outlook to reflect recent strength. The October Cattle on Feed report also showed September placements down 12% and marketings down 7% from last year, the lowest September totals since reporting began in 1996. Tighter supplies should continue supporting cattle prices, although USDA raised its beef-import forecast following the reopening of two ports of entry.