Rice
After trending higher for the past 6 weeks and trading at their highest level in two years, November futures are struggling to overcome resistance near $16. The rally was tied in part to gains in wheat futures and worries of global food insecurity related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran. A disappointing monsoon season in India has resulted in concerns about yields there.
Basis levels remain unfavorable with harvest in full swing, averaging near $1/ cwt under the board in many locations. Unsurprisingly, farmers are well ahead of schedule harvesting the crop for a couple of reasons. The crop is significantly smaller than years past, and the weather has been extremely hot and dry. USDA says 67% of the Arkansas crop was harvested as of Sep. 13, up from a 5-year average of 47%.
The monthly WASDE report only showed changes in supply. Beginning stocks were raised to 58.4 million cwt after the Aug. 1 rice stocks report came in higher than expected. Harvested acres were cut by 10,000 acres, resulting in a small reduction in the production estimate. The ending stocks estimate was increased by 4.4 million cwt to 40.4 million cwt, but that is still a significant drop year over year thanks to the historically small acreage. The unexpected upward adjustment in stocks provided fundamental resistance.
Soybeans
November soybeans look to be confirming a top. Futures moved to a new three-year high on Friday before the release of the WASDE report, and then plummeted by afternoon, leaving a huge bearish key reversal on the chart. Monday’s trade showed little follow-through selling, though, as the market reacted to higher crude oil prices amid further escalation of the war in Iran. Chinese President Xi Jin Ping will visit Washington soon, and there is optimism that China will lift it’s 10% import tariff on U.S. soybeans. The market would have to close above Friday’s high of $13.35 ¼ to negate the negative chart signal, and that might be a tough hill to climb. With prices still above $13, this could be a good pricing opportunity to consider as harvest continues.
Corn
December futures traded around $5.26 prior to the USDA report, surged to $5.44¼ immediately following the release, but ultimately reversed to close lower, forming a massive outside day down on the chart. While the market initially reacted with bullish enthusiasm right after the report came out, a wave of aggressive profit taking quickly sent prices to a lower daily finish. Combined with a five-wave sell signal and the first negative weekly finish since July, the chart now appears top-heavy and looks to have fully discounted recent bullish news. The WASDE report itself offered solid fundamental support, reducing the projected national yield by 2.2 bushels per acre down to 178.5 and lifting old-crop export estimates once again. However, a 150-million-bushel cut to 2026/27 feed and residual use largely offset those yield gains, even as the projected U.S. stocks-to-use ratio dipped below the key 10% threshold.
Cotton
December cotton remains well off its contract high of 93.74 cents set on Aug. 31, with prices now actively eyeing technical chart support around the 83.75-cent mark. The cotton market has traded lower recently, upended by broad negative sentiment surrounding outside markets. Sharply higher energy prices, widespread anxiety over upcoming Federal Reserve policy actions and a lingering bearish WASDE hangover are collectively contributing to cotton’s current weakness. Friday’s USDA report confirmed widespread yield losses across Texas and the Delta, lowering total U.S. production estimates to 13.20 million bales, down from 13.61 million last month and 13.90 million a year ago. Consequently, projected 2026/27 carryout was cut from 4.0 million to 3.6 million bales. However, because these crop troubles were already widely anticipated by traders, the supply cuts failed to spark a sustained rally. Adding further pressure, the USDA highlighted weaker domestic mill use as the U.S. textile industry continues to contract.
Wheat
The USDA crop report offered little new direction for the domestic market, though global export volumes are expected to contract slightly as Russia’s export forecast was lowered from 46 to 43 MMT. World wheat production and ending stocks both saw modest increases of 3 MMT, keeping broad supply fundamentals largely unchanged. In addition to sharply negative technical action, the market appears heavily overpriced relative to underlying supply and demand, which points toward a fair average price in the mid-$6.00 range, well below the $8.00 mark hit by March Chicago futures just last week. Chart technicals show next major support for March Chicago futures at $6.80, while July 2027 futures formed an outside day down to signal a major top, likely marking the best new-crop selling opportunity producers will see for quite some time.
Livestock
Broiler markets were mostly steady over the past two weeks, with whole-bird prices edging slightly higher. The USDA 2026 production forecast was left unchanged but lowered its fourth-quarter price outlook. Hog prices held near $91 per hundredweight. The pork production estimate was lowered due to slower slaughter and lighter carcass weights, while weaker export demand continues to affect the outlook. Cattle markets remain relatively volatile and below their earlier highs. USDA lowered its cattle price forecast for the remainder of 2026, citing weaker-than-expected packer demand. The beef production estimate was also reduced because of slower fed-cattle marketings, lighter dressed weights and lower expected cow slaughter. Although USDA raised its beef-import forecast, tight domestic cattle supplies and reduced beef production should continue providing some support to the market.